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The Kentucky Derby takes place every year on its traditional date of the first Saturday in May. This is a race that many people follow and try to handicap even if they’re not typically horse racing enthusiasts. Understanding race horses is hard work, and a discipline unto itself.

A true fluency in horse racing takes extensive study, but here are a few concepts that can help anyone better understand and enjoy the Kentucky Derby. Until recently, the Derby was a race dominated by the favorite. Since Spectacular Bid won the Derby in 1979, however, you can count the favorites who’ve won the race on one hand with fingers left over. In other words, the easiest way to pare down the field for a horse racing novice is to simply eliminate the popular favorite from consideration.

So why has the favorite done so poorly in recent years? One theory suggests that it is a by-product of the hype surrounding the race. Novice horse fans back the favorite, making it more of a popularity contest than anything else. The reality is that the horse with the most hype is not always the best horse.

Don’t forget to pay attention to the starting position of the horses, known as ‘post position’ in racing slang. The historical data suggests that a Derby winner is most likely to come from positions 1 through 5, while the outer positions (11 through 20) have produced relatively few winners. This is something of an over simplification, but for the purpose of understanding a single race it won’t hurt to just rule out all horses starting in a bad position.

Another factor worthy of consideration is the horses lineage and breeding. Start at the beginning”where the horse was born. Most, but not all, serious racehorses are born in Kentucky. If you see a horse in the race that wasnt, forget them. This is not any sort of home field advantage but a result of the concentration of the Thoroughbred horse industry in the state. Over 80% of Kentucky Derby winners have been born in Kentucky. Next, consider the horses gender, or more specifically dont consider any entry with a gender other than male. Only eleven horses other than intact males have ever won the race (eight geldings and three fillies). A gelding did win as recently as 2003, when Funny Cide took the roses but again for the newcomer this is an easy way to cut down the horses under consideration. This isnt a gender bias or anything, but for our purposes we can forget about non-male horses.

Don’t forget to consider dosage index numbers. These are a complex mathematical formula that measures a horse’s breeding lineage plus his past performance. You want to look for horses with a dosage index of 4.00 or less–over half of Derby winners have met this criteria since dosage numbers came into common usage in the mid 1980′s.

If you want to learn about horse racing in more depth, there are countless books available to introduce you to the subject. For a recreational fan who just wants to have a better understanding of the Kentucky Derby, these rules can help.

Ross Everett is a widely published freelance writer and respected authority on World Cup betting. His writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sports news and sportsbook directory sites. He lives in Southern Nevada with three Jack Russell Terriers and an emu. He is currently working on an autobiography of former energy secretary Donald Hodell.

Southern California’s Del Mar Racetrack has been is often overshadowed by East Coast venues like Churchill Downs and Belmont Park. The reality is that the 72 year old track has a history to rival their better known counterparts that includes the greatest horses and jockeys in the sport, as well as a healthy dose of show biz glitz. Operated by the Del Mar Thoroughbred Club and located 20 miles North of San Diego, its perhaps most famous for its iconic slogan: “Where The Surf Meets the Turf.”

The Del Mar Thoroughbred Club was founded by a group of well heeled enthusiasts in the mid’30s, and they immediately turned their attention to building a world class horse racing venue. The names that were instrumental in the creation of Del Mar include a whos who of American entertainment–most notably Bing Crosby, Oliver Hardy (of Laurel and Hardy) and Jimmy Durante. At the time the facility opened thoroughbred horse racing was the second most popular sport in America behind major league baseball, and Del Mar quickly gained a reputation for being a player in the industry.

Additionally, the star power involved with the project also provided a trendy cachet that the tonier race courses back East lacked. Bing Crosby himself greeted patrons at the gate on opening day, and during the late’30s and early’40s it became a place to be seen for Hollywood A-listers and those who aspired for celebrity. In addition to known gambling enthusiasts like W.C. Fields, Edgar Bergen and Red Skelton, the Del Mar patrons during that time also included some of the top female stars of the era including Ava Gardner, Paulette Goddard and Dorothy Lamour.

Del Mar was the site of the’38 match race between Seabiscuit and Ligaroti. Seabiscut won the $25,000 winner take all challenge by a nose, and this race set Del Mar betting and attendance records and remains one of the most famous races in history. The racing at Del Mar continued to flourish until the start of WWII, when the track went ‘dark’ for racing.

After the war, Del Mar reopened with a bang. The track reopened the day after Japan formally surrendered to Allied forces, and on that day Del Mar attracted over 20,000 fans through its gates who wagered what at the time was a record $958,476. The postwar prosperity was also a boon to Del Mar, which also benefitted from the Santa Fe Railroads daily Racetrack Special that brought bettors down from Los Angeles to enjoy a day at the track. During the latter part of the decade a new crop of Hollywood glitterati would flock to Del Mar, including Lucille Ball and Desi Arnaz, Mickey Rooney John Holmes, Frank Sinatra and Jimmy Durante. Durante would become such a regular that the turf course at Del Mar would later be renamed in his honor.

Even though the popularity of horse racing among the mainstream populace would ebb over the years, Del Mar remains a viable part of the thoroughbred community to this day. Theyve updated their facility, with a state of the art grand stand and most recently a synthetic polytrack surface that was installed in 2007. The racing season at Del Mar begins in mid July, and hosts crowds of 20,000+ on a daily basis throughout.

Ross Everett is a freelance sports writer and highly respected authority on sports betting odds comparison. He writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sports news and betting odds portal sites. He lives in Southern Nevada with three Jack Russell Terriers and a kangaroo. He is currently working on an autobiography of former interior secretary James Watt.

Betting on sports ‘futures’ is an enjoyable and potentially profitable way to wager, but there are several potential risks that can lead to losses. Here’s a rundown of things to avoid:

Search for the best price: A common mistake is to assume that the price on a specific futures wager position will be the same at every sportsbook. Nothing could be further from the truth. In fact, you’ll often see a greater degree of difference between futures prices from book to book than any other form of bet. This is because that books aren’t as worried about what price other outfits are offering as they are about keeping their own financial position balanced.

Don’t try to pick the winner in a competitive marketplace: This may sound sort of counter intuitive since the general idea of betting on futures is to determine the actual winner but it’s really not. Like everything else, its essential to always be mindful of the value you’re getting. In a futures market with several legitimate contenders at the top the price offered is seldom high enough to properly compensate for the risk you’re assuming. Here’s an example: in a hypothetical NCAA hoops tournament Duke is +200 to win the national championship. They’ve certainly got a shot, but at a payback of only 2/1 its hard to justify a wager at this point with the potential for so many interceding events that can make a championship more problematic. Such events as injuries, a tough tournament draw or even just going into a slump at the wrong time can happen to any team but when you bet a higher priced team–a ‘dark horse mid major at 15/1 for example–you’re getting “compensation” for assuming the “risks” of betting on a proposition with so many unknown variables.

In mathematical terms, we’re simply not being offered odds on a favorite that offer a good value in comparison with the ‘true odds’ of the event occurring. Let’s say we bet Duke at +200 to win the NCAA tournament. If we could magically play the NCAA tournament over 100 times, would Duke come out on top more than 33 times? If not, they’re a poor value at the price. At a higher price, I might be interested but at +200 the value is simply not there.

Note that the more competitive the market, the more difficult it is to find good value on the favorites. Since you can make a case for quite a few teams to win the NCAA tournament at this point this particular futures market is clearly a very competitive one. In a less competitive marketplace it might be possible to “pick the winner” and have it be a good value though you will pay a price for this. Here’s a (thankfully) hypothetical example: let’s say the UFC decided to hold a one night round robin tournament with 5 competitors. Competitor #1 would be heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar. The other four competitors would be professional figure skaters Elvis Stojko, Rudy Gallindo, Brian Boitano and Evgeni Plushinko. Even if he didn’t bring his “A game”, Lesnar would be essentially have a 100% certainty of beating the four untrained fighters, who also happen to be rather effeminate. If a sportsbook installed Lesnar as a -1000 favorite a bet on the 63 265 pound takedown would still be theoretically a good value. It’s always difficult to risk so much to win a little, but from a strictly theoretical standpoint its a good play.

Don’t try to make a huge profit with little risk: Sports betting provides few opportunities to make a ‘big killing’. It may happen occasionally, but even the big payouts when it occurs doesn’t make chasing big longshots a good value. If you’re serious about sports betting it is crucial to maintain your focus on the underlying numbers and look for value at all times. If you want to take a longshot at a huge jackpot, play the lottery but don’t try to do it at a sportsbook.

Simply stated, the concept of value works the same at the bottom of the wagering ladder as it does at the top. Even if you’re betting a big underdog at a huge price make sure that it accurately reflects the ‘true odds’ of the event occurring.

Don’t bet one sided props: Sometimes sports books will offer silly bets just to get publicity or in some cases just to be funny. While there may be life on other planets, the ‘true odds’ of a Martian being named to President Obama’s cabinet wouldn’t justify a +5000 line that it would occur.

Ross Everett is a widely published freelance writer and noted authority on sports betting odds comparison. He writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sportsbooks and betting odds portal sites. He lives in Las Vegas with three Jack Russell Terriers and a kangaroo. He is currently working on an autobiography of former energy secretary Donald Hodell.

After a controversial no contest in their first matchup, there was no doubt as to the winner of the DREAM 2 rematch between Shina Aoki and JZ Calvan. Aoki controlled the fight from the opening bell and used a wide repertoire of submission attempts to keep his opponent off balance. Most impressive was Aokis dominance of the ground game, which many observers considered to be JZs edge in the contest.

Aoki scored early with a takedown and controlled Calvan on the ground, working a heel lock attempt before taking his opponents back and attempting a rear naked choke. He was never able to complete the hold, but maintained a bodylock on JZC for the rest of the round. In the second, Aoki put on a submission clinic and demonstrated his ungodly flexibility as he spun from an armbar to a triangle choke and back again. Calvan was able to counter or escape, but looked completely out of sync as he generated almost no offense whatsoever over the 15 minutes.

Aoki was very emotional in his postfight speech to the crowd, while JZC just looked disgusted with himself for losing such a one sided contest. JZC had grumbled about the no-contest in their DREAM 1 matchup, and the one sided decision made this an even more bitter pill to swallow.

With the victory Aoki advances to the semifinals of the lightweight GP tournament. Thats the plan at least, as Aoki made some statements in the Japanese press leading up to the fight that win or lose there would be no way hed be ready for the next round with only half the preparation time as the rest of the field.

The rest of the card was devoted to the opening round of the middleweight GP tournament. Taiei Kin defeated Minowa-man Ikuhisa Minowa in a very closely contested and entertaining fight.

Korean judoka Yoon Dong-Sik also advanced with a unanimous decision victory over Shungo Oyama. Most of the damage in this fight came from Yoons ground and pound from full mount, and he controlled the tempo from the outset. Two one sided contests followed, with Zeleg Galesic submitting Magomed Sultanakhmadov via arm bar in a minute and a half of the first round. That was followed by the MMA debut of former Pac 10 wrestling standout Ian Murphy, who had a worst case scenario draw against BJJ specialist Ronaldo Jacare. From the opening bell it was clear that Murphy was in over his head, and the result was as one sided a contest as youll ever seen on a major MMA show. After withstanding a beating and several arm bar attempts Murphy finally tapped to a rear naked choke.

Ross Everett is a freelance writer who has written on sports betting and how to successfully bet on NFL football. He has appeared on TV and radio talking about boxing, hockey and NFL pointspreads. He lives in Las Vegas with three Jack Russell Terriers and a lynx.